The social network has its fingers in a majority of websites in one way or another. Businesses promote their Facebook pages on the homepage of their websites. Blogs, bloggers, journalists, and mainstream publications often have several different Facebook widgets littered everywhere on every page. In less than a month, Facebook will have over 700 million users.
It sounds like a safe bet. In reality, it’s guaranteed to be an utter failure in the not-so-long run based upon a combination of history, reality, and mathematics.
To win, they must be able to transition their massive userbase to a platform that is better suited for the future. We’re a couple of months into the iPad 2 and there is still no app for it (though one is on its way). Integration with other websites has been their strength and the mass adoption there has been extremely positive, but on the site itself, most still have challenges with finding all of the features.
It’s okay today. We’re tolerant with it the way it is because there are no valid alternatives and everyone else is on it. Without a challenger, they don’t necessarily need to have the best UI. Eventually, they will. Can the make the move in a year or two when they have nearly a billion users? It’s possible, but it’s a factor that is rarely looked at (for some reason) by investors who are focused so heavily on today and the control they have over their users.
Eventually, there will be a glitch in the matrix. It’s inevitable. Some sites can handle it. The bigger you are, however, the harder it is to do right.
http://www.techi.com/2011/06/facebooks-ipo-will-be-the-worst-investment-in-tech-history
